New Polling Memo: Another rough couple weeks for Republicans

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

(Delaware Democratic Party)

It's been another rough couple of weeks for Republicans in Washington and the polls bear that out. In the wake of Bob Woodward's book, Senator Warner's assessment that Iraq has taken "steps backward," and the Mark Foley scandal, several new polls show that President Bush's job performance numbers are down again and voters prefer Democrats over Republican candidates to take control of Congress.

Four Recent Polls Consistently Show Bush's Approval Ratings Back Below 40 Percent After A Brief Increase. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to Time's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August. An AP/Ipsos poll found that 39 percent of likely voters approved of Bush's job performance. An ARG poll found that 38 percent approved of his job performance. A CBS News poll found the president with 37 percent approval rating. An NBC poll found an approval rating of 39 percent.

Voters Overwhelmingly Believe That Republican Leaders Have Been Protecting Foley For Several Years, And Don't Believe They Just Learned About the Problem. A Rasmussen poll found that 61% of American adults believe that Republican leaders have been "protecting [Mark] Foley for several years." Only 21% believe that the leadership "just learn[ed] about Foley's problems last week." Even among Republicans, 31% believe the GOP leadership has been protecting Foley. Just under half 46% of the GOP faithful believe that Congressional leaders just learned about the problem. The poll found that older Americans, those most likely to vote, are least likely to believe that Republican leaders just learned about this issue. A Time poll found that almost 80% of respondents were aware of the scandal, and only 16% approve of the Republicans' handling of it.

Polls Not Mentioning Foley Still Found Voters Saying Corruption and Scandal in Congress Would Be Important to Their Vote, And Made Them Feel Less Favorable About a Republican Majority. An AP/Ipsos poll found that, asked how important "recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress" would be to their vote, 47 percent said extremely or very important, while 18 percent said not at all important. An NBC poll found that 41 percent said that what they had "seen and heard over the past few weeks" made them feel less comfortable about keeping a Republican majority in Congress, while 18 percent said more favorable and 35 percent said it had no effect.

Democrats Lead In Generic Vote Question By Double Digits. A Fox News poll found that Democrats are back to a double-digit lead in the generic vote question, up from a 3-point lead over Republicans earlier in the month, with 49 percent saying they preferred a Democrat to 38 percent saying a Republican. A Time poll found that 54% of registered voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican. A CBS poll found that 34 percent saw their vote as helping put Democrats in control of Congress, while 19 percent said it was to keep Republicans in control. A CNN poll found that 54 percent say they would vote for the generic Democrat, while 37 percent say they'd vote for the Republican.

By A 2-1 Margin, Voters Are Concerned About Which Party Leads Congress And think That Changing Control Makes A Difference. A CBS poll found that only 34 percent agreed with the statement "it makes no real difference which party controls Congress -- things go on just as they did before" while 65 percent disagree. A Fox News poll found that by a 13-percentage point margin, voters say they are more interested in which party wins control of Congress this year (36 percent) than in who wins their House and Senate races (23 percent). [FOX News Poll, Released 9/28/06, Polling conducted 9/26-27/06; CBS News/New York Times, Conducted 9/15-19/06]